National Weather Service
Dark green is the 5-10% range, then 10% bands after that. Data as of 2 a.m. Sunday, August 29.
Tropical Storm Earl's cone of uncertainty has moved a few more degrees west during the last day, pushing up the chances of the Carolinas seeing tropical storm force winds.
The forecast as of 8 a.m. on Sunday, August 29, gives the Charleston region a 5% chance of enduring sustained winds of 39 MPH or more.
The future of just where this storm goes depends a lot on just where the subtropical ridge weakens, beginning Earl's northwesterly spin. For now forecasters expect that to happen somewhere around 65 or 70 degrees west, roughly where Puerto Rico is.
As for Earl's strength, it's expected to shed its tropical storm status during the next 24 hours becoming a hurricane, and then expected to reach major hurricane status during the following two days.