What's happening with Tropical Storm Emily (update: broken but not done)

Image by NHC Emily's remnants.

Update August 5: The foretold day of telling for Emily has come ... and the storm has faltered, but not done just yet.

After passing over Hispaniola, the storm lost its intense wind speeds and cyclonic nature and now is dumping large amounts of rain on nearby islands.

The forces of the storm aren't done yet, and the National Hurricane Center is giving the remnants of the storm a 60% chance of reforming at some point. If that happens the storm could pose a threat as chances are it would continue to the north west.

We'll be sure to keep you posted on any moves by Emily's would-be successor.

Update August 4: The most recent forecast from the National Hurricane Center is predicting that Tropical Storm Emily will miss the South Carolina coast, but that prediction could easily change as Emily heads into the Bahamas and gains strength.

The hurricane center predicts that Emily will strengthen into a category one Hurricane early Monday morning, several hundred miles east of Charleston. The storm is expected to reach winds of 75 mph by the time it is parallel to the Charleston area.

First reporting: Tropical Storm Emily is gearing up for a ride over the Dominican Republic and Haiti late tonight, and all questions on the future of the would-be hurricane rest on what will happen as the storm becomes disorganized during its hiking excursion. 

Right now bets are on Emily being able to reorganize and pose a good risk to the East Coast.

There's only an estimated 15% chance of Emily having dissipated in the next two days and a 45% chance given to the storm remaining a tropical storm status, or getting stronger still.

As the days go out from Haiti, the swirling mass of moisture is expected to curve towards the United States. But no longer do the computer models converge on suggesting the storm will find land somewhere in the heart of Florida, nor now South Carolina — it seems more likely that the tropical storm (or perhaps a weak hurricane) will curve along the coast, posing more risk to the Outer Banks.

[Map below.]

The key moment will come on Friday as the storm likely moves over the Bahamas and conditions will emerge that steer it towards the Lowcountry or further afar. 

As you might guess, we'll be sure to keep you posted.

And while I wouldn't fret anytime soon, it's a good time to make sure your hurricane plan is in order.

And for some reason not entirely apparent to me at this moment, I'm feeling the need to watch Emily double — maybe it's just that name Emily sounds like a storm that wants to rough us up.


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