Polls show Obama could surprise McCain in 2008 election

Image by flickr user Steve RhodesImage by 20080717obama.jpg South Carolina primary results shocked Democrats Edwards and Clinton. Edwards hopped his native state would resurrect his campaign, and Clinton had hopped her traditionally strong support among black voters would continue. McCain could be equally shocked.

South Carolina could vote Democrat for the fist time
">in 32 years. The latest polling of our state shows a 6 percentage point gap between McCain and Obama with 10 percent undecided (±4.2 percent error). A poll in June actually showed Obama ahead in the Palmetto State.

The S.C. polls reflect the national polls (above) by showing Obama pulling ahead of McCain. In that latest set of polls (done by Public Policy Polling from July 9-11) Obama had a 77-10 lead with black voters, and a 54-32 lead with voters between 18 and 29, and McCain lead pretty much everywhere else.

Assuming public opinion of the candidates doesn't change much, and it almost surely will, Obama will need a large turnout from black and young voters, and some apathy by older white voters.

Now, we're sure these polls will be picked apart for bias or sampling errors. But, the point is that things look like they are going to be close in four months. So, young or old, whatever race, make sure to register to vote, because your vote may count more than ever. And make sure to register (or update) by early October, as you have to do so 30 days before an election.

A close national campaign could benefit Obama, who has shown a better grass-roots organization, and hinder McCain, who's campaign would more likely suffer from disorganization. We recently reported that the Obama campaign is preparing to send paid staffers to our state. It's an unusual move for Democrats to contest a usually solid Republican state.

The latest national polls show Obama leading with 4-6 percentage points.

The first debate is in two months (September 18), so you have a small reprieve before the onslaught. Breath deep.